Market Report

Saved by the bell


Tilburg, December 16th, 2018 

Also in the USA export prices to China went down.  Where the big Chinese buyers are still loading containers, most Chinese buyers halted purchases due to uncertainty over import licenses. Also inspection arrangements are not completely clear yet.  Where loading is continuing there is partly anticipated on arrivals after Chinese New Year (February 5th), assuming that import licenses will be there and then.  Just like in Europe. More demurrage time is arranged in order to load now and deliver later. Another week to go and trade will come more or less to a standstill anyway due to limited transport capacities in the last holiday weeks of this year. With this uncertainty export prices for occ in the U.S. to China went down with  $ 20-$ 30 per ton. The 25% import duties on American recovered paper play a role as well. In Europe prices had gone down already earlier and are still under pressure as loading for China is insufficient. Countries like Spain and Italy still have not a CCIC-inspection possibility, but Chinese authorities have indicated that these will come latest next month. But watch: while we were heading for another week without any news on import licenses in China this Friday we were informed that new import licenses for 2019 had been released. And quite a volume. It would be 5 million tons, an unexpected high volume with the knowledge that the for 2019 announced total volume to be imported would be no more than 12 million tons. This could keep us going for 5 months. But it is obvious that these 5 million tons will be loaded earlier and partly already have been loaded and therefore also will get to China earlier.  The local Chinese prices for recovered paper make this also necessary. Last week again local prices for occ (kls) went up further. So these import licenses are just in time – delays in sales and shipping towards the end of the year brought increasing uncertainty and gloom in our sector. If 25% will be bought in Europe, like we saw in the first 10 months of this year, we could ship 1.250.000 tons. That will surely change sentiments. Saved by the bell, so to say.  

Imports China: 45% down Jan-Oct 2018

With a volume of 1.3 million tons in the first 10 months of this year China has imported 12.8 million tons of recovered paper, a good 45% less than in the same period of 2017.  Almost five million tons (39% of that) came from the U.S.A., 25% or 3.2 million tons from Europe and 16% (2 million tons) from Japan. Expectation is that for the whole of 2018 a total of 15.5 million tons will enter China. That would be 10 million tons less than in 2017. Despite statements of more local generation of recovered paper in China, it is now expected that collection has gone down this year with 800.000 tons compared to 2017.

 


Price indication

Price indications in Europe for low grades of recovered paper, sorted, baled and ex-works are now between € 50 and € 180 per ton. These prices are depending on quality, available volume, region and loaded weight.

Click here for the price chart, with prices of the last 10 years.

The price chart gives an indication of the price of mixed paper in the Netherlands free delivered mill over the last years.  Scrolling over the top of the colums gives the exact price indication in Euro's per ton.
To view the price chart completely, please click and hold on the price chart after opening and move cursor to left or right to see all available years/months